Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0743
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into the central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181726Z - 182326Z

Summary...Strengthening thunderstorms are expanding in coverage
across the discussion area.  These trends should continue through
at least 23Z/7p EDT.  Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected - especially in the most sensitive locales across
western/northern Virginia and West Virginia.

Discussion...Strong insolation has prompted sufficient
destabilization for scattered thunderstorm development from
south-central Kentucky through higher elevations of western
Virginia.  These storms were developing in a weakly sheared, but
moist and unstable environment (1.6-2.1 inch PW values and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively).  Weak westerly flow aloft
was allowing for modest storm motions (around 10-15 knots).  The
combination of aforementioned environmental factors were already
contributing to areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS radar
data.

Convective trends should continue across the discussion area for
the next 6 hours at least.  Expansion of convective coverage will
allow for areas of mergers and rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at
times.  Meanwhile, these rain rates will fall on sensitive ground
conditions from prior heavy rainfall the past few days.  FFGs are
relatively low (widespread 1 inch/hr rates with localized areas
less than 0.5 inch/hr).  The moisture/instability combo supports
scattered FFG exceedance across the discussion area.  Locally
significant impacts cannot be ruled out given the sensitivity of
local ground conditions.  Storms should migrate west to east while
exhibiting modest upscale growth into clusters/linear segments
through the early evening hours.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...OHX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39327917 38927787 37857854 36847994 36418175
            35608289 35588344 36008346 36448394 36788595
            37608542 38298346 38948140